There seems to be a growing consensus that Facebook stock should fall and the most cited reason is “increasing mobile users and an inability to monetize them.” I’ve seen this in the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Bloomberg, and Yahoo. Surely, they’ve heard of Mark Zuckerberg before.
This was hardly an intuitive position taken by these analysts. In Facebook’s S-1 filing prior to its IPO, it stated several possible threats and weaknesses to its business namely the inability to monetize mobile users. It even updated its S-1 a couple weeks prior to the IPO date bringing more focus on the mobile monetization problem.
Mark Zuckerberg is a smart guy. Do you really think there isn’t a plan to monetize mobile users? It might not be close to implementation yet but there is almost certainly something in the works.
S-1 filings are designed to be a SWOT analysis and if I am Zuckerberg, I have no problem talking up a problem that there is a solution to. The fact that he admitted it is a current weakness doesn’t mean it will be one in the future. Even the near future. Now when he solves that problem and monetizes mobile users, he will look like a genius and the stock will receive a nice lift.
Analysts and writers are making a big deal of the mobile problem but in reality, the technology is there. Zuckerberg is fanatical about the social mission of Facebook more than how it operates as a business – but he is far from stupid. He will find a way to make money off of mobile users and when he does, he will look like a genius for solving a problem that Facebook itself talked up.