From One, All – Don’t Make a Bad Leap in Judgement

from-one-all

There is a behavior common among people. Maybe we think we are smarter than we are. Maybe we’re just lazy. But the tendency of taking a sample of one and making sweeping generalizations about the population can be tremendously misleading and can lead to poor decision making. Example Just this morning I was working with […]

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Nate Silver and the Science of Prediction

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This was a great little interview of Nate Silver done by Nesta. Silver briefly gives his views on the science of prediction and forecasting. This is a rare opprtunity as Nate Silver is usually a little longer winded! I have to say I agree with a couple things he said: first, that we are really […]

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Nate Silver – Baseball and Politics are Data Driven

nate-silver-usc

This is a quick highlight from a discussion Nate Silver gave at the USC Bedrosian Center of Governance. I really like a few of the things he touches on because he discusses the rule that correlation is not causation and you are likely to get burned assuming correlations have meaning without an underlying theory to […]

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Robert Shiller on Market Bubbles and Busts

wsj-shiller-wessel-interview

David Wessel from WSJ Money interviews Robert Shiller about market bubbles and busts – and even where the term “irrational exuberance” came from. I generally enjoy Wessel and this interview was an insightful look into Shiller’s thinking about bubbles. Yes, they should be preventable but the reality is we don’t have an effective way to […]

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Nate Silver’s Predictions for the 2016 Election

nate-silver-2016-presidential-election

Nate Silver is interviewed by the Aspen Institute in January 2013 on questions about the 2016 Presidential election. This is a good three years away and he’s already saying that it seems to him that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. Will he be right? Video transcript below: Interviewer: Do you see any democrats […]

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Robert Shiller Interview with The Guardian

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I like when some of our best academics get a chance to talk about ideas and solutions to problems they see. In this Robert Shiller interview, he gets an opportunity to do just that. His views on democratizing financial instruments and making them serve the people is at the heart of many economics theories – […]

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Anchoring with Daniel Kahneman

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This video explains anchoring with the voice from Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman. It is put together with nice graphics from farrastrausgiroux on YouTube. Below is the video transcript: [Kahneman in the background] Suppose I ask you whether the average price of German cars in the United States is more or less that $100,000. You probably […]

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